Talk:Shadow warrior

I'm questioning whether shadow warriors actually have 1/16 chance of accessing the rare drop table. A conservative estimate says I've killed 1000 in search of a tooth half of the crystal key. From the page on the RDT the chance is 19/128, so 128*16/19 < 108, and the drop chance is greater than 1/108.

Then (107/108)^1000 < 1/10964, a chance of 1 in nearly 11 thousand of no drop in 1000 kills. The source of 1/16 seems to be https://twitter.com/JagexAsh/status/635837312086220801  but here God Ash actually directly responds to "Do you mean the Rare drop table?" with "There's a gem drop table, used by most creatures that drop gems. The rare drop table is on it.".

It's also worth noting I saw none of Dropping one of these including the tooth half is a chance of atleast 71/128 according to the RDT page and so the chance of none in 1000 drops is less than 1/2^1000, which is tiny even accounting for me picking these items after my 1000 drops, and RNGesus chosing me from among the OSRS players.
 * 3k coins
 * Loop half of key
 * Dragonstone
 * Runite Bar
 * Silver ore
 * Nature talisman
 * Any rune+ weaponry / armour

But did see lots of uncut gems, including 1 diamond, atleast 5 rubies, and probably 30 gems overall. I also saw a few chaos talismans.

It seems possible this random drop table / gem drop table confusion is elsewhere too.

Thoughts?

Ferrumunum (talk) 22:16, September 29, 2017 (UTC)